Knockout Math
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What does Arsenal need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Arsenal are 15th with 3 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Lille. In our simulations Arsenal go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 77% of cases. 16 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 17 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Real Betis (matchday 7) and Real Madrid (matchday 6): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 32 percentage points.

15thleague position
3point from 1 match
>99%chance of going through (top 24)
77%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 5.8.

Arsenal matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00
    AwayNapoli1–0
    Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomeLille –
    Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayBayern München –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose>99%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    AwaySlavia Praha –
    Win 70%, draw 18%, defeat 12%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    HomeBorussia Dortmund –
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeReal Madrid –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwayReal Betis –
    Win 59%, draw 23%, defeat 18%
    Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeSabah –
    Win 94%, draw 4%, defeat 1%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Arsenal collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
6unlikely
7unlikely
8unlikely
9unlikely
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Arsenal finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona3>99%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart387%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe160%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal064%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig056%
  33. 33Feyenoord048%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt040%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams