Knockout Math
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What does Rennes need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Rennes are 17th with 1 point. Next match: 15 October, at home against OFI Crete. In our simulations Rennes go through (24th place or better) in 83% of cases and make the top 8 in 22%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 7 game at home against Omonia: winning or losing it moves the chances by 30 percentage points.

17thleague position
1point from 1 match
83%chance of going through (top 24)
22%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 12th, average 15.7.

Rennes matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    AwaySturm Graz0–0
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    HomeOFI Crete –
    Win 65%, draw 20%, defeat 14%
    Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw75%If they lose63%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    AwayJuventus –
    Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw87%If they lose79%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeOlympiacos –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw81%If they lose72%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayN.E.C. Nijmegen –
    Win 39%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw82%If they lose72%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeGNK Dinamo –
    Win 54%, draw 24%, defeat 22%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw78%If they lose67%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeOmonia –
    Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%
    Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw75%If they lose61%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwaySparta Praha –
    Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw83%If they lose74%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Rennes collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
811%
961%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Rennes finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense361%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg389%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo153%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar074%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań034%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams