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Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

Hoffenheim29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
50%Hoffenheim win
25%Draw
25%Beşiktaş win

The model gives Hoffenheim a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Beşiktaş 25%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 53%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 79%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Hoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: throughBeşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: through
Now14%71%25%85%
Hoffenheim win21%84%15%79%
Draw9%65%24%87%
Beşiktaş win4%53%46%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

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