Knockout Math
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Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

Sparta Praha3rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
61%Sparta Praha win
22%Draw
17%Lillestrøm win

The model gives Sparta Praha a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Lillestrøm 17%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 63%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 34%, a defeat to 10%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: throughLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: through
Now23%83%<1%15%
Sparta Praha win30%91%<1%10%
Draw14%75%<1%16%
Lillestrøm win8%63%2%34%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

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