Knockout Math
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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Levski Sofia27th, 0 pts
55%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
24%Draw
21%Levski Sofia win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Levski Sofia 21%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 40%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 42%, a defeat to 12%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

N.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: through
Now9%63%1%21%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win13%75%<1%12%
Draw5%53%1%21%
Levski Sofia win2%40%2%42%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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