Knockout Math
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GNK Dinamo vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 2
Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
43%GNK Dinamo win
26%Draw
31%Anderlecht win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Anderlecht 31%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 35%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

GNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: through
Now6%54%5%50%
GNK Dinamo win11%71%2%36%
Draw4%48%3%49%
Anderlecht win2%35%11%72%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

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