Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
61%Bournemouth win
22%Draw
17%Sturm Graz win
The model gives Bournemouth a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Sturm Graz 17%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Bournemouth: top 8 | Bournemouth: through | Sturm Graz: top 8 | Sturm Graz: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 57% | 97% | 5% | 52% |
| Bournemouth win | 69% | 99% | 2% | 43% |
| Draw | 44% | 95% | 5% | 56% |
| Sturm Graz win | 34% | 91% | 16% | 78% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm
- AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Milan
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen
- Celje – Omonia
- Lyon – Crystal Palace
- Union SG – Real Sociedad
- Torreense – Sunderland
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht
- Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
- Marseille – Olympiacos
- Celta – Juventus
- Benfica – Celtic
- Rennes – OFI Crete
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş