Knockout Math
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Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
61%Bournemouth win
22%Draw
17%Sturm Graz win

The model gives Bournemouth a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Sturm Graz 17%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 91%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Bournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: throughSturm Graz: top 8Sturm Graz: through
Now57%97%5%52%
Bournemouth win69%99%2%43%
Draw44%95%5%56%
Sturm Graz win34%91%16%78%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Other matchday 2 fixtures