Knockout Math
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Celta vs Juventus: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00

Celta26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Juventus1st, 3 pts
27%Celta win
25%Draw
48%Juventus win

The model gives Celta a 27% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Juventus 48%. Celta's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 53%. Juventus's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Celta: top 8Celta: throughJuventus: top 8Juventus: through
Now9%64%81%99%
Celta win21%84%66%98%
Draw8%65%78%>99%
Juventus win4%53%91%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

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