Knockout Math
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What does Hoffenheim need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Hoffenheim are 29th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Beşiktaş. In our simulations Hoffenheim go through (24th place or better) in 71% of cases and make the top 8 in 13%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Beşiktaş (matchday 2) and Sturm Graz (matchday 5): each result moves the chances by about 34 percentage points.

29thleague position
0point from 1 match
71%chance of going through (top 24)
13%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 17th, average 18.9.

Hoffenheim matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayOFI Crete0–2
    Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 22%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    HomeBeşiktaş –
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:If they win84%If they draw65%If they lose50%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeLyon –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw67%If they lose55%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    AwayCrystal Palace –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw71%If they lose60%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    HomeSturm Graz –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw60%If they lose48%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    AwayAnderlecht –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw69%If they lose54%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    AwayOlympiacos –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win87%If they draw72%If they lose59%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeFerencváros –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw61%If they lose51%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Hoffenheim collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
88%
955%
1095%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Hoffenheim finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete348%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos390%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad070%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta065%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň051%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams