Salzburg vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Milan30th, 0 pts
26%Salzburg win
25%Draw
49%Milan win
The model gives Salzburg a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Milan 49%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 89%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 29% | 88% | 46% | 95% |
| Salzburg win | 51% | 98% | 24% | 89% |
| Draw | 28% | 90% | 36% | 94% |
| Milan win | 18% | 83% | 62% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm
- AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen
- Celje – Omonia
- Lyon – Crystal Palace
- Union SG – Real Sociedad
- Torreense – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht
- Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
- Marseille – Olympiacos
- Celta – Juventus
- Benfica – Celtic
- Rennes – OFI Crete
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş