Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
58%Jagiellonia win
23%Draw
19%Ararat-Armenia win
The model gives Jagiellonia a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Ararat-Armenia 19%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 52%, a defeat to 19%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 27%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 41% | <1% | 10% |
| Jagiellonia win | 5% | 52% | <1% | 5% |
| Draw | 1% | 29% | <1% | 10% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 1% | 19% | 1% | 27% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 2 fixtures
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- Salzburg – Milan
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen
- Celje – Omonia
- Lyon – Crystal Palace
- Union SG – Real Sociedad
- Torreense – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
- Marseille – Olympiacos
- Celta – Juventus
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- Rennes – OFI Crete
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş