Knockout Math
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Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Beşiktaş4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
58%Beşiktaş win
23%Draw
19%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win

The model gives Beşiktaş a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 19%. Beşiktaş's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 68%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 53%, a defeat to 18%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Beşiktaş: top 8Beşiktaş: throughHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: through
Now25%85%1%27%
Beşiktaş win34%94%<1%18%
Draw16%79%1%29%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win10%68%4%53%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%

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