Knockout Math
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Ferencváros vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

Ferencváros6th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Celje31st, 0 pts
55%Ferencváros win
24%Draw
21%Celje win

The model gives Ferencváros a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Celje 21%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 64%. Celje's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 29%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Ferencváros: top 8Ferencváros: throughCelje: top 8Celje: through
Now20%83%3%40%
Ferencváros win29%92%1%29%
Draw13%76%2%41%
Celje win6%64%9%65%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

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