Knockout Math
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GNK Dinamo vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 5
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
20%GNK Dinamo win
23%Draw
56%Leverkusen win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 20% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Leverkusen 56%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 43%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

GNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now6%54%75%99%
GNK Dinamo win16%78%55%97%
Draw5%58%67%99%
Leverkusen win3%43%85%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%

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