Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
Hoffenheim29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
58%Hoffenheim win
23%Draw
19%Sturm Graz win
The model gives Hoffenheim a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Sturm Graz 19%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 49%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 42%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Hoffenheim: top 8 | Hoffenheim: through | Sturm Graz: top 8 | Sturm Graz: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 14% | 71% | 5% | 52% |
| Hoffenheim win | 20% | 82% | 2% | 42% |
| Draw | 6% | 61% | 5% | 57% |
| Sturm Graz win | 4% | 49% | 15% | 77% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia