Knockout Math
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Viktoria Plzeň vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

Viktoria Plzeň34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Benfica7th, 3 pts
25%Viktoria Plzeň win
25%Draw
51%Benfica win

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 25% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Benfica 51%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 49% now: a win would take it to 72%, a defeat to 38%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Viktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: throughBenfica: top 8Benfica: through
Now4%49%82%99%
Viktoria Plzeň win12%72%66%99%
Draw3%50%78%99%
Benfica win2%38%91%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

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