Knockout Math
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N.E.C. Nijmegen vs Rennes: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00

N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Rennes17th, 1 pts
34%N.E.C. Nijmegen win
26%Draw
39%Rennes win

The model gives N.E.C. Nijmegen a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Rennes 39%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 81%, a defeat to 48%. Rennes's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 71%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

N.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: throughRennes: top 8Rennes: through
Now9%63%23%83%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win18%81%9%71%
Draw6%61%17%82%
Rennes win3%48%38%94%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 5 fixtures