Marseille vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 5
Levski Sofia27th, 0 pts
73%Marseille win
17%Draw
10%Levski Sofia win
The model gives Marseille a 73% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Levski Sofia 10%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 88%, a defeat to 59%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 48%, a defeat to 16%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through | Levski Sofia: top 8 | Levski Sofia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 82% | 1% | 21% |
| Marseille win | 27% | 88% | <1% | 16% |
| Draw | 11% | 71% | 1% | 25% |
| Levski Sofia win | 6% | 59% | 4% | 48% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Sunderland – Jagiellonia
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz