Sunderland vs Jagiellonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 5 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
Sunderland16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 5
Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
58%Sunderland win
23%Draw
19%Jagiellonia win
The model gives Sunderland a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Jagiellonia 19%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 84%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 31%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Sunderland: top 8 | Sunderland: through | Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 42% | 93% | 3% | 41% |
| Sunderland win | 53% | 97% | 1% | 31% |
| Draw | 31% | 90% | 3% | 44% |
| Jagiellonia win | 20% | 84% | 10% | 67% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 5 fixtures
- Beşiktaş – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Ararat-Armenia
- Viktoria Plzeň – Benfica
- GNK Dinamo – Leverkusen
- Olympiacos – Milan
- Marseille – Levski Sofia
- Union SG – Lech Poznań
- Celta – Bournemouth
- Sparta Praha – AZ Alkmaar
- Crystal Palace – Real Sociedad
- Ferencváros – Celje
- Juventus – Omonia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Celtic
- Hoffenheim – Sturm Graz