Knockout Math
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What does Levski Sofia need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Levski Sofia are 27th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against N.E.C. Nijmegen. In our simulations Levski Sofia go through (24th place or better) in 21% of cases and make the top 8 in 1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Jagiellonia (matchday 4) and Lillestrøm (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 26 percentage points.

27thleague position
0point from 1 match
21%chance of going through (top 24)
1%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 36th, average 29.2.

Levski Sofia matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeSalzburg0–1
    Win 27%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayN.E.C. Nijmegen –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win43%If they draw21%If they lose12%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    AwayViktoria Plzeň –
    Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 57%
    Chance of going through:If they win42%If they draw21%If they lose13%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeJagiellonia –
    Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win35%If they draw15%If they lose8%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    AwayMarseille –
    Win 10%, draw 17%, defeat 73%
    Chance of going through:If they win50%If they draw26%If they lose16%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeLillestrøm –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw14%If they lose7%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    HomeMilan –
    Win 13%, draw 19%, defeat 67%
    Chance of going through:If they win46%If they draw24%If they lose15%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwaySunderland –
    Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%
    Chance of going through:If they win46%If they draw22%If they lose14%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Levski Sofia collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
87%
945%
1092%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Levski Sofia finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG393%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva128%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo153%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim072%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň051%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams