Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
Levski Sofia27th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
40%Levski Sofia win
26%Draw
34%Jagiellonia win
The model gives Levski Sofia a 40% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Jagiellonia 34%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 21% now: a win would take it to 34%, a defeat to 9%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 25%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Levski Sofia: top 8 | Levski Sofia: through | Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 1% | 21% | 3% | 41% |
| Levski Sofia win | 1% | 34% | 1% | 25% |
| Draw | <1% | 15% | 2% | 37% |
| Jagiellonia win | <1% | 9% | 7% | 62% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
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