Sturm Graz vs Celje: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Celje31st, 0 pts
53%Sturm Graz win
24%Draw
23%Celje win
The model gives Sturm Graz a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Celje 23%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 29%. Celje's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 65%, a defeat to 28%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Sturm Graz: top 8 | Sturm Graz: through | Celje: top 8 | Celje: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 52% | 3% | 40% |
| Sturm Graz win | 8% | 66% | 1% | 28% |
| Draw | 2% | 42% | 2% | 40% |
| Celje win | 1% | 29% | 8% | 65% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo