Leverkusen vs Marseille: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
53%Leverkusen win
24%Draw
23%Marseille win
The model gives Leverkusen a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Marseille 23%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 94%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Leverkusen: top 8 | Leverkusen: through | Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 75% | 99% | 22% | 82% |
| Leverkusen win | 86% | >99% | 13% | 76% |
| Draw | 69% | 99% | 21% | 85% |
| Marseille win | 56% | 97% | 44% | 94% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo