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Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Viktoria Plzeň34th, 0 pts
31%Lillestrøm win
26%Draw
43%Viktoria Plzeň win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 31% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Viktoria Plzeň 43%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 29%, a defeat to 7%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 49% now: a win would take it to 67%, a defeat to 30%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: through
Now<1%15%4%49%
Lillestrøm win1%29%1%30%
Draw<1%12%2%43%
Viktoria Plzeň win<1%7%8%67%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

Other matchday 4 fixtures