Real Sociedad vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Lyon10th, 3 pts
41%Real Sociedad win
26%Draw
33%Lyon win
The model gives Real Sociedad a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lyon 33%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 54%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Real Sociedad: top 8 | Real Sociedad: through | Lyon: top 8 | Lyon: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 12% | 71% | 44% | 94% |
| Real Sociedad win | 21% | 86% | 29% | 90% |
| Draw | 7% | 67% | 41% | 95% |
| Lyon win | 4% | 54% | 65% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo