Benfica vs Lech Poznań: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Benfica7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
71%Benfica win
18%Draw
11%Lech Poznań win
The model gives Benfica a 71% chance of winning, a draw 18% and Lech Poznań 11%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 63%, a defeat to 27%. The most likely score is 2–0 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Benfica: top 8 | Benfica: through | Lech Poznań: top 8 | Lech Poznań: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 82% | 99% | 2% | 33% |
| Benfica win | 88% | >99% | 1% | 27% |
| Draw | 71% | 99% | 3% | 39% |
| Lech Poznań win | 61% | 98% | 7% | 63% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–013%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
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- Real Sociedad – Lyon
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- Leverkusen – Marseille
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