Knockout Math
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Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00

Sunderland16th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
51%Sunderland win
25%Draw
24%GNK Dinamo win

The model gives Sunderland a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and GNK Dinamo 24%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 42%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sunderland: top 8Sunderland: throughGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: through
Now42%93%6%54%
Sunderland win56%98%2%42%
Draw32%92%4%55%
GNK Dinamo win22%85%15%77%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

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