Celta vs Union SG: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
Celta26th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Union SG5th, 3 pts
44%Celta win
26%Draw
30%Union SG win
The model gives Celta a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Union SG 30%. Celta's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 46%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Celta: top 8 | Celta: through | Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 9% | 64% | 40% | 92% |
| Celta win | 16% | 79% | 26% | 87% |
| Draw | 6% | 58% | 39% | 93% |
| Union SG win | 3% | 46% | 61% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- AZ Alkmaar – Juventus
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo