AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 21:00
AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Juventus1st, 3 pts
27%AZ Alkmaar win
25%Draw
48%Juventus win
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 27% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Juventus 48%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 65%. Juventus's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| AZ Alkmaar: top 8 | AZ Alkmaar: through | Juventus: top 8 | Juventus: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 14% | 75% | 81% | 99% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 30% | 90% | 66% | 98% |
| Draw | 13% | 77% | 78% | 99% |
| Juventus win | 7% | 65% | 91% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Milan – Ferencváros
- Sparta Praha – Bournemouth
- Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim
- Lillestrøm – Viktoria Plzeň
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Omonia
- Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia
- Real Sociedad – Lyon
- Anderlecht – Salzburg
- Rennes – Olympiacos
- Leverkusen – Marseille
- Celtic – Beşiktaş
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva – OFI Crete
- Celta – Union SG
- Torreense – Ararat-Armenia
- Sturm Graz – Celje
- Benfica – Lech Poznań
- Sunderland – GNK Dinamo