Knockout Math
Latviski

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 5 November, 18:45

Sparta Praha3rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
33%Sparta Praha win
26%Draw
41%Bournemouth win

The model gives Sparta Praha a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bournemouth 41%. Sparta Praha's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 73%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Sparta Praha: top 8Sparta Praha: throughBournemouth: top 8Bournemouth: through
Now23%83%57%97%
Sparta Praha win39%95%39%94%
Draw19%83%53%97%
Bournemouth win12%73%75%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 4 fixtures