Knockout Math
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What does Celje need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Celje are 31st with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Omonia. In our simulations Celje go through (24th place or better) in 39% of cases and make the top 8 in 3%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest match is the matchday 2 game at home against Omonia: winning or losing it moves the chances by 35 percentage points.

31stleague position
0point from 1 match
39%chance of going through (top 24)
3%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 34th, average 25.6.

Celje matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    AwayLeverkusen0–2
    Win 7%, draw 14%, defeat 79%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    HomeOmonia –
    Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%
    Chance of going through:If they win56%If they draw31%If they lose21%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeSalzburg –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%
    Chance of going through:If they win62%If they draw38%If they lose27%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwaySturm Graz –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win63%If they draw41%If they lose28%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayFerencváros –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win65%If they draw41%If they lose29%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeOlympiacos –
    Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%
    Chance of going through:If they win65%If they draw39%If they lose28%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    AwayArarat-Armenia –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win56%If they draw34%If they lose24%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeN.E.C. Nijmegen –
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 39%
    Chance of going through:If they win59%If they draw35%If they lose25%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Celje collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
87%
948%
1092%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Celje finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica3>99%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense361%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad070%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar074%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams