Knockout Math
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Pafos vs Riga FC: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

PafosLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 2
Riga FCLeague phase not started yet
53%Pafos win
24%Draw
23%Riga FC win

The model gives Pafos a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Riga FC 23%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 31%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 40%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Pafos: top 8Pafos: throughRiga FC: top 8Riga FC: through
Now8%55%7%53%
Pafos win13%71%3%40%
Draw4%45%6%56%
Riga FC win2%31%19%80%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

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