Knockout Math
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Ajax vs Atalanta: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

AjaxLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 2
AtalantaLeague phase not started yet
29%Ajax win
26%Draw
45%Atalanta win

The model gives Ajax a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Atalanta 45%. Ajax's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 76%. Atalanta's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Ajax: top 8Ajax: throughAtalanta: top 8Atalanta: through
Now30%84%85%99%
Ajax win52%95%72%99%
Draw28%85%84%99%
Atalanta win18%76%95%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

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