Knockout Math
Latviski

Monaco vs Freiburg: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

MonacoLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 2
FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
44%Monaco win
26%Draw
30%Freiburg win

The model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Freiburg 30%. Monaco's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 89%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Monaco: top 8Monaco: throughFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: through
Now52%95%51%94%
Monaco win71%99%36%90%
Draw44%95%50%95%
Freiburg win30%89%75%99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

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