Pafos vs Midtjylland: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
PafosLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
MidtjyllandLeague phase not started yet
32%Pafos win
26%Draw
42%Midtjylland win
The model gives Pafos a 32% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Midtjylland 42%. Pafos's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 39%. Midtjylland's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Pafos: top 8 | Pafos: through | Midtjylland: top 8 | Midtjylland: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 8% | 55% | 47% | 92% |
| Pafos win | 18% | 78% | 27% | 85% |
| Draw | 5% | 54% | 42% | 92% |
| Midtjylland win | 2% | 39% | 66% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–07%
2–17%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente