Ajax vs Thun: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45
AjaxLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
ThunLeague phase not started yet
67%Ajax win
20%Draw
14%Thun win
The model gives Ajax a 67% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Thun 14%. Ajax's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 62%. Thun's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 40%. The most likely score is 2–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Ajax: top 8 | Ajax: through | Thun: top 8 | Thun: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 30% | 84% | 6% | 48% |
| Ajax win | 38% | 92% | 4% | 40% |
| Draw | 17% | 74% | 7% | 54% |
| Thun win | 10% | 62% | 20% | 79% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio
- Freiburg – Twente