Knockout Math
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Brann vs Aarhus: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 18:45

BrannLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
AarhusLeague phase not started yet
41%Brann win
26%Draw
33%Aarhus win

The model gives Brann a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Aarhus 33%. Brann's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 57%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 79% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 67%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Brann: top 8Brann: throughAarhus: top 8Aarhus: through
Now19%75%24%79%
Brann win32%90%11%67%
Draw13%72%20%80%
Aarhus win7%57%42%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

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