Freiburg vs Twente: what's at stake in the Conference League?
← Conference League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Thursday 26 November, 21:00
FreiburgLeague phase not started yet
–Matchday 4
TwenteLeague phase not started yet
58%Freiburg win
23%Draw
19%Twente win
The model gives Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Twente 19%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. Twente's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 85%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Freiburg: top 8 | Freiburg: through | Twente: top 8 | Twente: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 51% | 94% | 36% | 89% |
| Freiburg win | 65% | 98% | 25% | 85% |
| Draw | 38% | 91% | 40% | 92% |
| Twente win | 25% | 85% | 66% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty – Mjällby
- Ajax – Thun
- Brighton – Universitatea Craiova
- Iberia Tbilisi – Getafe
- Jablonec – Lugano
- Kauno Žalgiris – Riga FC
- Hearts – Monaco
- Egnatia – Lincoln Red Imps
- Pafos – Midtjylland
- Brann – Aarhus
- Nordsjælland – Panathinaikos
- Borac – Atalanta
- Hajduk Split – Sint-Truidense
- Inter Escaldes – Copenhagen
- Gent – Crvena Zvezda
- CSKA Sofia – Trabzonspor
- Braga – KuPS Kuopio