Knockout Math
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What does Real Sociedad need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Real Sociedad are 22nd with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Union SG. In our simulations Real Sociedad go through (24th place or better) in 71% of cases and make the top 8 in 12%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Viktoria Plzeň (matchday 7) and Lillestrøm (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 35 percentage points.

22ndleague position
0point from 1 match
71%chance of going through (top 24)
12%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 19th, average 19.2.

Real Sociedad matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeBournemouth1–2
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    AwayUnion SG –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw71%If they lose57%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    AwayLillestrøm –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw62%If they lose48%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeLyon –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw67%If they lose55%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayCrystal Palace –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw71%If they lose60%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeTorreense –
    Win 69%, draw 19%, defeat 12%
    Chance of going through:If they win80%If they draw55%If they lose45%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeViktoria Plzeň –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw60%If they lose48%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayJuventus –
    Win 18%, draw 22%, defeat 60%
    Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw74%If they lose63%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Real Sociedad collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
813%
964%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Real Sociedad finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş386%
  5. 5Union SG393%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva128%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia040%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta065%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań034%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen062%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams