Knockout Math
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Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Lillestrøm24th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
21%Lillestrøm win
24%Draw
55%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Real Sociedad 55%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 15% now: a win would take it to 33%, a defeat to 8%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 50%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now<1%15%12%71%
Lillestrøm win1%33%3%50%
Draw<1%14%6%63%
Real Sociedad win<1%8%18%82%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Other matchday 3 fixtures