Celje vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?
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Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
Celje31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Salzburg14th, 3 pts
28%Celje win
26%Draw
46%Salzburg win
The model gives Celje a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Salzburg 46%. Celje's chance of going through is 40% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 27%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 77%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Celje: top 8 | Celje: through | Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 40% | 29% | 88% |
| Celje win | 7% | 62% | 13% | 77% |
| Draw | 2% | 38% | 22% | 86% |
| Salzburg win | 1% | 27% | 43% | 96% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon