Knockout Math
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OFI Crete vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

OFI Crete9th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
13%OFI Crete win
19%Draw
67%Leverkusen win

The model gives OFI Crete a 13% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Leverkusen 67%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 49% now: a win would take it to 78%, a defeat to 42%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now4%49%75%99%
OFI Crete win13%78%51%96%
Draw4%55%65%98%
Leverkusen win2%42%82%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%

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