Knockout Math
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Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
36%Jagiellonia win
26%Draw
38%Anderlecht win

The model gives Jagiellonia a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Anderlecht 38%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 25%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 34%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Jagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: throughAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: through
Now3%41%5%50%
Jagiellonia win7%61%1%34%
Draw2%36%3%46%
Anderlecht win1%25%10%69%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 3 fixtures