Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
Jagiellonia21st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
36%Jagiellonia win
26%Draw
38%Anderlecht win
The model gives Jagiellonia a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Anderlecht 38%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 61%, a defeat to 25%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 34%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | Anderlecht: top 8 | Anderlecht: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 41% | 5% | 50% |
| Jagiellonia win | 7% | 61% | 1% | 34% |
| Draw | 2% | 36% | 3% | 46% |
| Anderlecht win | 1% | 25% | 10% | 69% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
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- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon