Sturm Graz vs Marseille: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45
Sturm Graz20th, 1 pts
–Matchday 3
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
26%Sturm Graz win
25%Draw
49%Marseille win
The model gives Sturm Graz a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Marseille 49%. Sturm Graz's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 39%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Sturm Graz: top 8 | Sturm Graz: through | Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 52% | 22% | 82% |
| Sturm Graz win | 12% | 75% | 8% | 68% |
| Draw | 4% | 52% | 15% | 79% |
| Marseille win | 2% | 39% | 34% | 92% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon