Bournemouth vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
Bournemouth12th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Milan30th, 0 pts
33%Bournemouth win
26%Draw
41%Milan win
The model gives Bournemouth a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Milan 41%. Bournemouth's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 94%. Milan's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Bournemouth: top 8 | Bournemouth: through | Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 57% | 97% | 46% | 95% |
| Bournemouth win | 77% | 99% | 27% | 90% |
| Draw | 56% | 97% | 41% | 95% |
| Milan win | 42% | 94% | 64% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon