Knockout Math
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Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Hoffenheim29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Ferencváros6th, 3 pts
55%Hoffenheim win
24%Draw
21%Ferencváros win

The model gives Hoffenheim a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Ferencváros 21%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 51%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 83% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 76%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Hoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: throughFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: through
Now14%71%20%83%
Hoffenheim win20%83%12%76%
Draw8%63%20%86%
Ferencváros win4%51%42%96%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Other matchday 8 fixtures