Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
Benfica7th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
57%Benfica win
23%Draw
20%AZ Alkmaar win
The model gives Benfica a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 20%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Benfica: top 8 | Benfica: through | AZ Alkmaar: top 8 | AZ Alkmaar: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 82% | 99% | 14% | 75% |
| Benfica win | 90% | >99% | 8% | 68% |
| Draw | 76% | 99% | 14% | 78% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 65% | 98% | 33% | 91% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Union SG – Celtic
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros