Marseille vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
Marseille32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 8
Anderlecht23rd, 0 pts
61%Marseille win
22%Draw
17%Anderlecht win
The model gives Marseille a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Anderlecht 17%. Marseille's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 63%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 76%, a defeat to 42%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Marseille: top 8 | Marseille: through | Anderlecht: top 8 | Anderlecht: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 82% | 5% | 50% |
| Marseille win | 30% | 90% | 3% | 42% |
| Draw | 12% | 75% | 5% | 54% |
| Anderlecht win | 7% | 63% | 14% | 76% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Union SG – Celtic
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros