Knockout Math
Latviski

Lyon vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00

Lyon10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Leverkusen8th, 3 pts
33%Lyon win
26%Draw
41%Leverkusen win

The model gives Lyon a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Leverkusen 41%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. Leverkusen's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lyon: top 8Lyon: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now44%94%75%99%
Lyon win64%99%61%98%
Draw41%94%72%99%
Leverkusen win30%90%88%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%

Other matchday 8 fixtures