Union SG vs Celtic: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 8 · Thursday 28 January, 21:00
Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 8
Celtic28th, 0 pts
48%Union SG win
25%Draw
26%Celtic win
The model gives Union SG a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Celtic 26%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 83%. Celtic's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 75%, a defeat to 40%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | Celtic: top 8 | Celtic: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 40% | 92% | 6% | 52% |
| Union SG win | 55% | 98% | 2% | 40% |
| Draw | 32% | 90% | 5% | 52% |
| Celtic win | 22% | 83% | 14% | 75% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 8 fixtures
- Milan – Ararat-Armenia
- Sparta Praha – Rennes
- Bournemouth – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Salzburg – Crystal Palace
- Viktoria Plzeň – Jagiellonia
- GNK Dinamo – Sturm Graz
- Juventus – Real Sociedad
- Celje – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete – Lech Poznań
- Marseille – Anderlecht
- Lyon – Leverkusen
- Omonia – Beşiktaş
- Celta – Lillestrøm
- Torreense – Olympiacos
- Benfica – AZ Alkmaar
- Sunderland – Levski Sofia
- Hoffenheim – Ferencváros